Like so many others across America, I learned the news of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in an incidental way. Heading from Washington DC to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last night, my mind was on mundane matters – not least how long the security clearance would take when I arrived. Suddenly, the Uber driver asked: “Have they caught the shooter yet?”
This is not a completely unusual conversation in a country where gun rampages are sporadic features of national life and local news, so I muttered something about not knowing about that. “I just hope Trump is ok,” he said earnestly.
It was a moment where you will never forget where you were, because it is one that re-sets the course of America’s history and ours in Britain and far beyond, whose fates are tied up with it in our interconnected and menacing world.
That was minutes after Thomas Matthew Crooks, a young white male from a suburban borough in Pennsylvania, where the rally was being held, had allegedly set his sniper on the former president who is running again for office. Crooks pulled a trigger with the likely intent of assassination – before being shot himself by security agents.
The image of Trump, in mid cheery bombast as he reflected on one of his previous viral speeches about shark attacks, suddenly diving to the floor, the frantic scramble of security agents holding hands over his head, is the ragged, unedited first draft of history as Trump joins the ranks of presidents or candidates for office who have suffered attempts on their life.
What matters politically and will influence the outcome of the US election race in November was Trump’s response. He was laudably quick to respond to being pulled to his feet as agents sought to get him off stage (with the presence of mind to insist on putting his shoes back on), rising to his feet and punching the air defiantly as blood from his grazed ear coursed down his cheek. In that moment, we realised Trump had been just millimetres away from being a murdered candidate – with even worse implications for civil order.
Trump will do Trump, even in extremis, so his other instinct was the less laudable one of shouting “Fight! Fight” which stirred the MAGA muscle memory of the crowd, who began chanting, “USA!” as he was hustled away. “One thing you have to remember about DT,” a former member of his team messaged me in the aftermath, “is that he never forgets where the cameras are”. The former president saw his moment – and deployed it.
The photograph of his bloodied, dishevelled but defiant face with a US flag flying over his head will surely become the iconic campaign image because of America’s revolutionary history, one forged in blood and conflict. The argument that he is too old or rambling to run for Office will not survive his boisterous response to an attempt to kill him.
On my flight to Milwaukee, the general conversation was one of sober relief. “I can’t stand him – but thank God he’s alright,” said the woman across the aisle.
Conspiracy theories however are already running wild. Many senior national security figures who will be in the frame for a terrible lapse which nearly cost a presidential candidate his life, were appointed by or promoted by President Biden. This is inevitable, given this is one of Biden’s responsibilities. “Figure that one out,” said the man behind be in the airport queue – the implication being that a Democratic presidency had somehow allowed this attack to happen. The untruthfulness of this should be evident to everyone – yet very large numbers of people shared false information on social platforms.
Fox News, which has been a message carrier for Trump but has recently tried to nuance its coverage, was respectful of Biden’s reaching out in person to his political foe. Liberal-inclined networks like CNN argued this was a moment to put aside the damaging rhetoric of division which may well have contributed to this deadly attack.
A source on the Biden team, who had told me only on Friday that this was the “week of the all-weapons fightback” from an embattled leader to save his candidacy after a series of gaffes, confirmed that a series of digital adverts intended to show Biden in verbal attack mode against Trump were being hastily withdrawn.
The risks of misjudging the public mood are high. It also means the Democratic campaign strategy has to be quickly re-thought.
In terms of immediate impacts, this event should cauterise calls for Biden to step aside to make way for a less experienced and nationally untried vice president. The next two weeks were the looming “window” in which those seeking to oust Biden from the election ticket needed to make their move. Infighting now, however, would look disastrous. So barring a serious adverse health event, Biden will likely remain as the contender.
Trump is now awaited by Republicans in Milwaukee as a hero who has shown his extraordinary ability to emerge unscathed, whether from court cases or attempts on his life. He has the pulpit to preach his message as a survivor. The mood will be Messianic – and angry.
How he handles this combustible combination will also determine whether this is the moment America steps back from the grim violence which is threading its way venomously through the system and has culminated in a near tragedy this weekend. Passions and fury may simply be too high for that to be nothing other than an unrealistic aspiration.
The initial response in this situation is to issue denunciations that “violence has no place in American politics”.
But as soon as the conversation turns to who is to blame for a lapse in protection, what motivated the shooter and whose political conduct has to alter in the campaign as a result, the calls for reason will, I fear, ring hollow. In Milwaukee from Monday, Donald Trump, victim and victor of this terrible moment, holds the key to what follows. The echoes will be heard across America – and the Atlantic, for the weeks and years ahead.
Anne McElvoy is Executive editor of Politico and hosts the Power Play podcast broadcast this week from the Republican National Convention