Next week Tory MPs will gather for an all party group dinner in London. The event is meant to provide a unifying moment for the various Tory tribes – even if MPs are already complaining about the decision to hold it on a Thursday. “It means most of us won’t be able to head back to our constituencies until Friday,” says one attendee.
The hope in Downing Street is that a spot of organised fun will boost morale after a tricky start to the year with internal clashes over the boats bill.
Ahead of the event, Simon Clarke gave party unity an unintended boost on Tuesday night when he called for Sunak to go – warning the party was facing electoral oblivion. Rather than follow him, MPs from across the party came together to condemn him. As one member of government puts it: “The brass on him. It’s the most pathetic putsch.”
But while Clarke’s attempt is seen as a coup so bad it makes Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt’s failed attempt to oust Gordon Brown in 2010 look impressive, there are other signs of trouble ahead for Sunak.
More concerning than Clarke’s outburst is the news that Sunak’s pollster Will Dry had quit Downing Street to work with a group of plotters hoping to bring down Sunak. Dry has gone from running polling for the Prime Minister (where he says he became ‘steadily more dispirited’) to helping the mysterious “Conservative Britain Alliance” of Tory donors draft questions for a damaging series of polls that have run in The Telegraph.
“It’s all starting to look rather organised,” says one Tory MP. The exact identity of these anonymous plotters is a source of increasing intrigue in SW1. The group involves a mix of unhappy MPs, jaded former Government advisers and donors displeased with the direction under Sunak.
“There is a group of them that have been going round since November saying they are plotting Rishi’s downfall,” says a seasoned party figure. “They aren’t sure what would come after, they just want to take Rishi down.”
While the identity of the alliance of Tory donors funding the polls is unknown, one man’s involvement is clear – Lord Frost. It’s not that surprising given that Frost last year suggested the party should consider changing leader.
The former cabinet minister fronted the initial MRP poll – he is viewed in Downing Street as complicit in the efforts to oust Sunak. So far this had led to a confrontation in the Lords, with Lord True, the Tory leader of the upper house, trying and failing to get Frost to say who funded it.
However, Frost could face a worse punishment yet. He is on the candidates list – and even has a so-called VIP pass meaning he can apply to most seats. However, there is a feeling in Government that someone working against the prime minister should not be in line for one of the few Tory safe seats. “It would be absurd to let someone undermining Sunak bag a plum seat,” says a party figure.
One rebel suggests that not all the plotters are actually talking to one another – or an organised bloc. “We’re a much more organic group that people realise,” they say. “Yes different people are talking but that’s the nature of Westminster.”
However, there is one thing they all agree on: Sunak must go. As for what comes next, they tend to take the view that the party needs to move to a more populist platform – and see Sunak’s managerialism as outdated conservatism.
The success of Donald Trump across the pond is further fuelling the idea that a larger than life character ready to say the unsayable is the party’s best bet. With the UK and US elections in the same year for the first time since 1992, expect this sentiment to grow if Trump succeeds and Sunak flounders.
As for a specific successor to Sunak, each has a different view on who that would be. The most popular figure to take over as PM is Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary. This is because she may be able to take other parts of the party with her while moving the party further right. However, despite repeated attempts by this group to imply Badenoch and her team is involved, her team strongly deny she would get behind these efforts or have anything to do with the rebels.
That is less of an issue with Suella Braverman, After Sunak sacked her as Home Secretary in November, Braverman is free to speak against Sunak and the policies she doesn’t like. She has taken many opportunities to do just this. While some of the plotters say their heart is with Braverman, they worry that she wouldn’t have sufficient following.
But even the lesser known names are being talked up. Last weekend, Robert Jenrick said he wouldn’t rule out a leadership bid in the future. Colleagues say he appears to have lost weight and is looking better than in years – a sure fire sign someone might be planning on running. Not everyone is impressed.
“We used to call him Rob Generic and now he wants to be reborn as an alt-right leader,” says a sceptical colleague. Even Clarke is being talked up by some: “Simon Clarke is a potential dark horse a la Cameron in 2005,” says an ally. Others argue Nigel Farage could be the answer.
However, most of the group think this is a conversation for a later day. Instead, the focus should be one they can all get behind – undermining Sunak and encouraging MPs to come round to their thinking that as one rebel puts it he is an “albatross around the neck in the eyes of the public”.
The rebels see their hard deadline for ousting Sunak as the week after the May local elections – they believe bad by-election results in February and problems on Rwanda could bring more MPs round to their thinking.
While Downing Street figures say they are not worried, the fact this group plan to keep going means that even if they don’t succeed, they can still do plenty of damage in the process.