The dust is still settling on the Conservatives election disaster, but battle lines are already being drawn over who should lead the party out of the wreckage.

A catastrophic evening that saw nine Cabinet ministers lose their seats, the ousting of former prime minister Liz Truss and the loss of vast swathes of Tory heartlands, has left the Conservatives licking their wounds.

Senior figures in the party have been quick to caution against making the “disastrous mistake” of lurching to the right in response to suffering the worst defeats in its 200-year history. Sir Robert Buckland, who lost his seat, is warning his colleagues that such a move “would send us into the abyss, and gift Labour government for many years”.

Some insiders are viewing the unceremonious defenestration of a former prime minister as a silver lining on an otherwise humiliating evening at the ballot box.

Ms Truss had long been positioning herself as a powerbase within the Conservatives, launching a new right-wing caucus, called Popular Conservatism, and flirting with populist movements in the US and Europe.

Her removal from parliament was welcomed by one former Cabinet minister, who added: “She was going to try to be a real siren voice luring the party even further on to the rocks.”

The comments are a sign of the tug of war for the future of the party that is likely to play out in the battle for its leadership, reflecting the division and rancour that has dominated since the uneasy coalition of voters was formed under Boris Johnson in 2019.

Voices from the more moderate wing of the party, many of whom saw their seats turn yellow and red on Thursday, have warned that the rebuild must come from the centre, while those fearing the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK continue to believe that success will only come by outflanking the right.

For his part, Mr Farage is understood to be counting on the Conservatives selecting a new leader from the centre right, rather than those further to the right, such as Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch.

“We will be the only party of the right when the Tories double down on their weak and soft centre, and that gives us an excellent opportunity,” said a Reform insider.

But the left of the Conservative party has already seen two of its potential standard bearers – Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt – ousted by the electorate, leaving it with likely candidates in former security minister Tom Tugendhat, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins and Home Secretary James Cleverly.

While Mr Cleverly has suggested he does not want the top job, there may be a push from moderate figures to force him onto the ballot as he is seen as one of the more natural media performers.

Treasury minister Laura Trott is also said to be “considering” a run, although one insider acknowledged “she’ll need the longer end of the timeframe” of a leadership campaign in autumn or winter to build up a head of steam to have a chance of winning.

But they added: “Did you see the mad interview she did with Times? Wearing thousands of pounds of clothes.

“She’ll be seen as continuity Rishi unfortunately for her.”

Challengers from the right will be Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick and Priti Patel. Suella Braverman, the Tory firebrand who has long been tipped as a potential leader, is seen by some as having destroyed any realistic chance of the leadership due to her ongoing flirtation with Mr Farage.

A senior Tory said: “I doubt Suella can repair things in the way that is needed – the party needs to move away from the idea that this defeat is all about not being sufficiently appealing to Reform voters.”

A party strategist was more blunt when it came to the former home secretary’s prospects in the party.

“Suella looks dead,” the source said, adding that she had been “deserted for Jenrick and others”. The insider insisted that right winger “was only ever a vehicle” for discontent for certain factions of the party.

A separate source on the Tory right admitted that support for Ms Braverman “seems to have pretty much fizzled out already”.

While there is caution about tacking further to the right in the hope of outflanking Mr Farage, there is an acknowledgement that the veteran Eurosceptic, who is perhaps the most natural performer in the Commons, risks dominating Westminster.

“You have to have a strong character otherwise he’ll drown us out. He’ll eat people like Atkins alive,” the source said.

The obvious choice for many is Ms Badenoch, who has garnered strong support among the party membership for her no-nonsense approach to the media, but sources say she has few friends within Westminster beyond her hardcore of allies.

A source pointed out that Ms Badenoch will “start a fight with her own party before him [Farage]”.

The Essex MP’s camp have already secured the domain names for a leadership push, while members of her team have insisted any discussions about the leadership “will come after the election”.

Others that are likely to launch a challenge are Ms Patel and Mr Jenrick, although the latter was dismissed by one Tory as being a “cosplay right-winger”. “I doubt he has much support,” the source said.

Ms Patel continues to attract interest, having spent a great deal of the campaign helping candidates in other seats to get elected in what was viewed as a quid pro quo.

A Tory MP told i that Ms Patel had a chance of uniting the party, but there were doubts about her popularity with the membership.

“The membership is a bit different now to how it was under Boris – there have been lots of resignations of right-wing members,” the Conservative said.

“Broadly, they [members] want Farage’s policies and Cameron’s presentation.”

One party member said they thought the main battle for the leadership would be between Mr Tugendhat and Ms Badenoch – with Ms Patel and Mr Cleverly also possible contenders.

The power of the party membership in choosing the next leader remains a major concern for senior Tories, with the disastrous choice of Ms Truss held partly responsible for the party’s performance on Thursday.

Lamenting the role of the membership, a Tory peer told i: “I don’t think it’s possible to take it away from members at this time – but the MPs need to think very carefully about the final two who go to party.”

Make the wrong choice and the fear among party bigwigs is that the Conservatives could remain out of power until at least the mid-2030s.

A former Cabinet minister said the party needed to look to Labour for inspiration. “In 2019 people were saying the Tories would be in for another 10 years, it was an unassailable majority. But the way that Labour came back is a lesson for us,” the veteran said.

“The Conservative party will go through the doldrums as they did after 1997. It will need to make the right decisions and make the right diagnosis.”