What question do Labour politicians dread the most? Anything on ruling out tax rises isn’t great – the party is trying to give itself as much wriggle room as possible should difficult decisions greet them if in government. Questions on Keir Starmer’s former support for Jeremy Corbyn can make for rather awkward viewing too, as evidenced by last week’s Sky debate.
But since Starmer took over the party there is one question that tends to send the leader and members of his front bench into a spin like no other: what is a woman?
Over the years, both Starmer and his frontbenchers have found themselves tongue-tied on the issue. Initially, Starmer struggled to answer it, having backed a self ID policy inherited from Corbyn.
However, last year he moved his position after much internal wrangling. When pressed on what makes a woman, he then managed, “99.9 per cent of women haven’t got a penis”, last year. This wasn’t enough for some women’s rights campaigners who said the correct figure was 100 per cent, with one commentator suggesting Starmer was taking 99.9 per cent of women for fools.
So, it has not gone unnoticed in Labour circles this week that Starmer has been offered a lesson in how to deal with the thorny issue by none other than Tony Blair.
In an interview with Scotland’s Holyrood magazine, the former prime minister mused, “I don’t know how politics got itself into this muddle”, before answering the question himself: “What is a woman? Well, it’s not a very hard thing for me to answer really. I’m definitely of the school that says, biologically, a woman is with a vagina and a man is with a penis. I think we can say that quite clearly.”
Blair goes on to say that “if people want to reassign their gender” they ought to be entitled to do so and this policy must be designed with three “very important” qualifications: protecting single-sex spaces; the importance of language pertaining to women’s health; and greater protections for young people.
So, what’s behind Blair’s intervention? Predictably, those frustrated with the long journey Starmer took to get to the current position have been quick to praise Blair for managing something the current Labour leader couldn’t muster for over a year.
But that’s not to say it’s an unhelpful intervention for Starmer. After all, what Blair is now articulating is close to the current Labour position. Having a politician the public heavily associate with Labour talk about it can be handy in an election campaign where the party is focussed on winning over Tory switchers. It might even be more helpful than Starmer wading back into the debate himself.
This could become a theme if Labour enters government. While Starmer and his team have clearly made great strides in showing they are a party that can be trusted with power – just look at the polls – question marks remain over how ready they are for the great challenges that await.
It’s no coincidence that Pat McFadden, a former Blairite, has been handed a key election campaign role and is expected to play a very senior role in Starmer’s government. It’s not just that Starmer has time for Blairites and sees owning the centre of politics as a condition of winning elections.
He also values experience – and inevitably those in the Labour movement with experience of power will be Blairites or Brownites. The Blairites had the greater success.
It means that there is increasing talk in the party of what role the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change will play in government. There is an expectation that staff from Blair’s non-profit could be plucked to work as special advisers in the government. Then there’s the intellectual policy work – expect papers and thinking by the institute to do some of the heavy lifting. “Blair is still doing a lot of the thinking on the toughest issues,” says a Labour figure.
So, what about the man himself? No one thinks he is about to try to mount a return, which means he is not a direct threat. It’s no secret that Blair has had talks with Starmer, particularly in the last year. As Starmer looks to be elected with a majority even larger than the 1997 landslide, he may find himself going to Blair for advice even more frequently – as a leader who won big and managed to win re-election twice.
One worry in Starmer’s team is that he could enter government with a huge majority but a negative approval rating. Voters are volatile; just look at the expected result of this election compared with the last one in 2019 when “experts” were warning Labour would be out of power for at least two elections.
Blair’s ability to capture the public mood on hotly contested issues such as the trans debate could be helpful to Starmer as he seeks to keep hold of the centre ground in office.
Katy Balls is political editor at ‘The Spectator’