Already our politics feels a little bit calmer. Labour has kicked out the Tories, Sir Keir Starmer has moved into Downing Street, and the Cabinet table is surrounded by fresh faces.
There is none of the frothy excitement and frenetic sense of national renewal felt when the last Labour leader ejected a clapped-out bunch of fractious Conservatives. Instead, there is an air of rather downbeat realism, symbolised by acknowledgement that our creaking health and prison services are in crisis and in urgent need of reform, as I have been arguing for many years.
Suddenly there feels something strangely exciting about the concept of dreary competence in government, the idea that a team of ministers might pull together to sort out the country’s many problems rather than focus solely on their own futures with performative stunts. So infectious is this mood – this weird idea that politicians might try to actually deliver on pledges, rather than simply play selfish power games – that it is already being adopted by some of the Tories and leading Brexiteers, who did so much to foster last week’s mass culling of Conservatives.
The collapse of their vote – almost halving under an onslaught of tactical voting that proved so profitable for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats – demonstrated how many sections of the electorate were fed up with the feuding and ineptitude among people elected and paid to run the country.
The challenge for Starmer when normal politics resumes after his honeymoon is to see if his side has learned the right lessons from their woes – or if they will fall victim to the same corrosive failings when their new government gets buffeted by events and turbulence.
Labour’s landslide masks the increasing fragmentation of our political landscape. The two main parties are diminishing in appeal amid disruption from new populist forces – as seen across our continent – that range from Reform on the hard right through to the Greens on the left.
Starmer’s electoral machine was very efficient at converting votes into seats, but his share of the ballot was the lowest won by a governing party for more than 100 years. Citizens display far less party loyalty than in the past, switching sides and growing more adept at manipulating the electoral system to deliver results they want. Others show their contempt with Westminster by staying at home, as shown by the second-lowest turnout for a century.
The Conservatives were ripped asunder because of their flawed response when nationalism erupted again in Europe. David Cameron initially realised he needed to win back moderates, so he sought to shake off their “nasty party” past and gave the Tories a liberal makeover – just as Starmer has done with his disavowal of the hard left.
Yet even before he became leader, Cameron capitulated to his eurosceptics to win support by pulling out of a pro-European group in Brussels. It was a small step. But it sent the Tories hurtling down the path of appeasement with populism that ended with Brexit, the embrace again of nasty party policies with stunts such as the risible Rwanda refugee scheme – and their subsequent implosion last week.
Far from crushing the fringe to his right, Cameron and his successors empowered various forces led by Nigel Farage. The Tory desertion of the centre is symbolised by the tragedy of Liz Truss – a former Liberal Democrat sent into a safe Norfolk seat under his modernisation efforts. She lurched right to win the leadership, then blew up the economy during her short spell in Downing Street before finally shredding the 26,000-vote majority in her seat.
“The issue we faced as Conservatives is we haven’t delivered sufficiently on the policies people want,” pontificated this 49-day prime minister, who held posts in cabinet responsible for the economy, trade, environment, justice and foreign affairs during her Icarus-like career.
The post-Brexit coalition that led to triumph in 2019, assisted by Labour’s sharp turn to the left, was never sustainable, for all the talk of realignment, since the party was trying to bind together voters with very different economic and social outlooks. They alienated liberal conservatives repulsed by populism – yet failed to hold on to those lured by the harder line offered by Farage. They fought among themselves, showed abject contempt for voters with their arrogance, and forgot about concentrating on issues that really concern communities, such as a decent health service, functioning criminal justice system and building enough homes for future generations.
Now Labour has built a similarly wide coalition on shallow foundations. Regardless of whether the Tories return to their senses or remain in the rabbit hole of populism, they will be harassed by Farage’s Reform on the hard right and Greens to the left.
The significance of the Greens has been overlooked. They exploited Starmer’s shift to the centre and his missteps on Gaza, as well as growing Tory hostility to climate change policies, to win all four target seats. They triumphed in progressive Bristol and Brighton – but also took two from the Tories in Herefordshire and Suffolk. And they won 15 per cent support among the youngest cohort of voters aged 18-24 – what one Labour insider called “the Greta Thunberg generation”. This group will be substantially swollen if Starmer goes ahead with extending the vote to 16 year olds.
The Tories, betraying their traditions and values, have proved the futility of trying to defeat extremism by apeing it. They deserved their heavy defeat. Yet these are dangerous times, with dwindling faith in politics and dictatorships waging war on democracy.
Starmer has made a decent start – and we must hope he stands firm on his stated desire to banish tribalism, devolve power, respect rivals and restore trust in government.
Yet there is more than Labour’s new coalition at stake. Populism is on the march and needs to be defeated.
So after the Tory failures, Labour needs to prove that government can be competent and politics can really deliver change.