Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been warned to keep out of the SNP leadership contest, as Scotland’s former first ministers cast a shadow over the battle to succeed Humza Yousaf.
Ms Sturgeon has been accused of plotting to install John Swinney in a “coronation”, while Mr Salmond – leader of the breakaway Alba Party – has been told he should stop “meddling” in the SNP race.
It comes as Mr Swinney and Kate Forbes emerged as the sole frontrunners to replace Mr Yousaf, who quit as SNP leader and First Minister on Monday after his decision to ditch a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens backfired.
Ms Forbes suggested that she was keen to stand in a contest against Mr Swinney – insisting that there is a “groundswell of support” for her, but that she needed more time to decide.
“I’m not ruling myself out,” said the former finance secretary, who won 48 per cent of the SNP membership’s vote to Mr Yousaf’s 52 per cent at last year’s leadership contest.
Asked if she was tempted to put herself before members again, Ms Forbes told Sky News: “I think for me it’s clear I have a groundswell of support amongst the party. That was clear in the last contest.”
Mr Swinney, who led the party from 2002-04, has yet to declare whether he will stand. But many senior party figures have already swung in behind him, including the SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth.
Mr Swinney suggested he was considering standing because Mr Yousaf had left the SNP in a worse state than under Ms Sturgeon.
He told reporters that the party was in “more difficult situation than it found itself in 12 months ago”, so he would be doing a disservice to “the many, many, many people who have contacted me asking me to stand” if he did not seriously think about a leadership bid.
Mr Swinney is thought to have a far better chance than Ms Forbes – a socially conservative Christian who previously said she would not have voted to legalise same-sex marriage – in winning the support of the left-wing Scottish Greens.
However, Ms Forbes’ backers say she would be able to reach out to other parties, including the Scottish Conservatives and Alba MSP Ash Regan, more easily than Mr Swinney.
There are no talks happening yet between the two camps, i understands, with Ms Forbes still mulling over whether she could win a contest that is decided by the SNP membership.
A source close to her said she was seriously considering running – but may be open to a deal with Mr Swinney to stand aside if she is given a senior job in the Scottish government.
“She’s taking sounding from her supporters – but she’s got a lot of support from members, the public and from the parliamentary group. There may be talks [with Mr Swinney] to come. That will be up to Kate.”
One Holyrood source told i that Ms Sturgeon, along with senior SNP minister Angus Robertson and Deputy First Minister Shona Robison, was involved in encouraging Mr Swinney to stand for the leadership.
Mr Salmond pushed back against the idea of a Swinney coronation on Tuesday, when he urged Mr Yousaf’s successor to “totally rule out” a further pact with the Scottish Greens.
And Chris McEleny, Alba’s general secretary, told i that Mr Swinney would be seen as “continuity Sturgeon” who would let the Greens have too much influence.
Mr McEleny claimed that the attempted coronation of Mr Swinney was “part of a plot” by Ms Sturgeon and people around her. “‘Nobody can work with Kate [Forbes]’ is part of a project to anoint John Swinney.”
However, a source close to Ms Sturgeon denied the claims. “Needless to say, this is utter rubbish.”
Another SNP source told i that Mr Salmond should stop interfering with the party’s leadership process. “A deal with Alba was never going to work. He should stop meddling and stay out of a decision that is for the SNP to make.”
Andy Maciver , the Scottish Conservatives’ former media chief, said the influence of both Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond on politics was “diminishing all the time”.
The co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast said: “Sturgeon and Swinney are very close. But it will be clear to Swinney that the perception of Sturgeon being involved [in his leadership bid] is toxic for him.”
Mr Maciver added: “I dare say Salmond has enjoyed being in the headlines. He saw an opportunity for relevance again. You could make an argument that with Kate Forbes, Ash Regan’s vote might still be relevant again. But if things are moving towards John Swinney, the Alba vote is irrelevant.”
A Scottish Labour source said that if the SNP decided on a coronation for Mr Swinney, it would be “like getting the Volvo 240 estate out of the shed, safe, lots of mileage, but not exciting anyone”.
“Really the SNP should be going electric, admitting independence has been off the agenda since the Supreme Court rejection of Sturgeon and they should change the whole engine not just the gear,” the insider added.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is understood to have privately believed during the last leadership election that it was easier to beat Ms Forbes than Mr Yousaf, as the party would be able to outflank her on the left.
Candidates have until noon on Monday 6 May to declare. The SNP minority Government, run by Mr Yousaf until his successor is in place, stills face a vote of no confidence tabled by Scottish Labour on Wednesday. However, the move is expected to fail after the Scottish Greens said they will not vote against the Government.