Advisers to Rishi Sunak have had a sense of déjà vu over the past six weeks. They get up go to work (starting with a 5am meeting) and campaign on behalf of their boss. But the polls don’t move, their critics loom large and it ultimately feels like a losing battle.

This was the case back in 2022 when Sunak tried and failed to win the Tory leadership contest – beaten then by Liz Truss. And now in the 2024 general election – where his gamble to call a summer election to take his opponents by surprise has spectacularly backfired. Once again, Sunak has been fighting against the odds – to little avail.

Only this time there seems to be no way back for Sunak. His party plan to replace him – the question is simply how long before he steps down to make way for his successor. Those close to Sunak say he has no ego on this question – it would be hard to after presiding over the party’s worst result in history. Instead, he will do as his party wishes. “If they want him to stay on as an interim leader, he will,” says a confidante. “If they don’t, he won’t – he has a sense of duty.”

In the early hours of this morning, an exhausted Sunak apologised to his party as he conceded defeat, telling Tories: “I take responsibility”.

The result marks a sorry end to Sunak’s premiership – one that has seen the Prime Minister struggle to make his own weather. Sunak’s supporters are quick to point out that the situation he inherited from Liz Truss and Boris Johnson meant he was hamstrung from the start. He had to spend the first days of his premiership firefighting in the aftermath of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget – working on a new fiscal package aimed at calming the markets. With inflation back to target, he can at least claim that his stewarding of the economy brought back stability.

But given the problems were exacerbated by his own side, there’s a reason voters haven’t been particularly grateful. What’s more, Sunak only found a path to No 10 as a result of Tory chaos. It was only because the situation facing the party and country was so dire that the Conservative Parliamentary Party decided to put him straight into 10 Downing Street with no mandate from the membership or public.

Haunted by the lack of a mandate

That lack of mandate has haunted Sunak for the time he has been in No 10. Sunak saw himself as governing a coalition – and sought unity at all points. The problem is that after 14 years of government and several coups, the party is too fractured to unite. It’s why some of his inner circle privately argued for a more robust approach – where Sunak would take positions whether on the European Convention on Human Rights or the economy even if it meant one flank of the party didn’t like it one bit. But this was viewed as too risky.

It’s easy to look at the antics of the Tory party over the past six weeks and blame the party – whether its Sunak’s own close aide gambling on the election date or Suella Braverman penning op-eds criticising her party mid campaign. “He gave the party a choice to unite or die,” says one Sunak aide. “They made their choice.”

But Sunak and his team are not without blame themselves. There has been a frustration at times that many of Sunak’s team – in the words of one Tory MP – tend to be “true believers”, who always see the best in their boss. “They needed more experience in there and critical voices,” says a minister, who backed Sunak. “I think it could have been different.” Sunak’s decision to focus on AI, revamping A-levels and a smoking ban are viewed by many in the party as policies pandering to his interests rather than voters.

His high moment was the Windsor Framework when Sunak defied his critics and managed to agree a deal with the EU that dealt with some of the knotty issues remaining on Brexit, namely the Northern Ireland Protocol. This coincided with the highest poll ratings of Sunak’s premiership and a wave of optimism that the Tories could close the gap. However, dismal local election results soon after sapped up any hope and the Tory party once again entered a doom loop.

Yet the episode offers a lesson. It was when Sunak went against Boris Johnson and Liz Truss – both opposed the Windsor Framework – that he had the most cut through. Sunak then showed that he could govern in a way different to his predecessors. Had he been quicker to distance himself from his predecessors such as Johnson over the privileges vote, he could have made further inroads here. Instead, the rest of his premiership was often defined by Sunak trying to take a middle road that didn’t particularly please anyone.

One of the most catastrophic judgement calls made by a PM

The most drastic action he has taken in recent months was the decision to opt for a July election. It will go down in history as one of the most catastrophic judgement calls by a prime minister. “It shows he is not political,” says a Cabinet minister.

This is a repeated critique. That Sunak lacks the political antennae and ruthless streak needed to govern. Instead, he applies logic to situations – when that misses out many of the factors that drive people to behave as they do. As a former Cabinet minister puts it: “It’s been blooming obvious for some time that Rishi mistakenly thought running the country was like running the Treasury. It’s not – he lacks leadership and judgement.”

Some who have been reported to have argued for that early election are now trying to distance them from the decision, including Oliver Dowden. However, several ministers and aides insist that Dowden was in favour of an early election date. There is also unhappiness amidst claims that Dowden pushed for one and then was largely absent from the media for the campaign. “A lot of people have shown their true colours,” says one Tory figure working on the campaign.

Among Sunak’s team, the fear was that things would get worse if they waited. Sunak’s approval ratings were in decline, there were concerns about a potential crisis in prisons and the Rwanda scheme could have led to Cabinet resignations.

Now the hope is that history will be kinder to him than the present. “I think in six months time, people will start to reassess his premiership,” says one optimistic aide. “He does not deserve the vitriol he has received. He is a good man who works hard.”

‘Mad’ to think he wants another stressful job

As for what he will do next, his closest allies insist talk of him fleeing to the States to his Californian mansion is misplaced. Yes, he might go on holiday. But he has signalled to friends that he plans to stay in the UK and to remain as an MP until the next election at least. The other rumour is that he could lead an AI firm or venture fund. But aides say this is a fundamental misunderstanding of his current mood. “The idea he wants another really stressful job after this is mad,” says a colleague. “He wants to focus on his family.”

As a former prime minister, Sunak is likely to establish an office. His supporters say it is premature to discuss what issues he might pursue outside of 10 Downing Street. Theresa May has continued work on tackling modern slavery and Gordon Brown on poverty. Causes close to Sunak’s heart include education, entrepreneurship, and local government funding.

As the Tory blame game gets under way in the coming days, Sunak is likely to spend the weekend in Yorkshire in his constituency. Electing a new leader is not simple. First the party needs a new chair of the 1922 committee to be elected given the current head Graham Brady has stepped down. Then the new chair in consultation with the board will make decisions on a plan for an interim leader and any contest. That will determine his immediate next steps.

As for Sunak’s legacy, his smoking ban could be picked up by Labour and the Windsor Framework is likely to remain under Starmer. His team hope for more still. They believe that as with Truss and the Tory leadership contest, Sunak’s warnings will be proven right in time. If taxes rise and immigration goes up as Sunak predicted in the various television debates, he can claim to have been on the right side of the argument. Then Sunak can pitch himself as the leader with the right diagnosis – even if few were listening at the time.