Brian Harman’s victory at Hoylake last year is testimony to the difficulty in picking a winner at the Open Championship. The nature of the links beast, the variables involved from freak gusts to weird bounces to bad lies has the potential to wreck the reputations of pundits as well as a golfer’s card.
This is a test of temperament as much as talent and technique and, with cross winds set to add to the confusion, those who deal with adversity best will have an advantage. Harman, a hunter in his spare time, kept his hands steady and mind quiet to pull off a victory few saw coming.
The list below includes a cross section of prospects from the best in the world to an outlier with a string of spooky connections that might or might not prove significant. One thing is for sure, every golfer out here can play, but only one can win. Here are five worthy of your attention.
The favourite: Scottie Scheffler
Chose not to play in Scotland last week, which for any normal golfer of limited links experience might be a problem.
Not Scheffler, whose preternatural control of the golf ball makes him the outstanding candidate whenever he tees it up. He has yet to better his tie for eighth on debut three years ago, but such is the form of the world No 1, it is a heresy to counsel against him.
Those four wins in five events including the Players Championship and the Masters in the spring still make the eyes water.
The popular vote: Tommy Fleetwood
Maybe this is the week the putts drop.
Second and fourth here in his last four Opens, Fleetwood has the perfect ball flight for a windy day at the links.
Kickstarted his year with a one-shot victory over Rory McIlroy in Dubai and finished third at the Masters. He has been knocking for so long there is an imprint of his knuckles on all four major doors.
It’s all about landing a punch with the flat stick for him.
The decent shout: Collin Morikawa
Lost his way since his victory in this tournament three years ago.
Split with his coach Rick Sessinghaus 11 months ago to try to rediscover the keys to a game that took him to two majors and world No 2. The split was but a short affair.
Realising his error Morikawa invited Sessinghaus back into the fold. A tie for third at Augusta was followed by a share of fourth at the PGA Championship a month later suggest he is finding form.
The darkish horse: Viktor Hovland
In three Open appearances he has never finished lower than 13th. Began the final round at St Andrews in 2022 in the final group before falling to fourth.
After his FedEx Cup win last year took him to world No 3 he inexplicably fired his coach in search of the perfect swing.
It was a disaster, and after an 81 and missed cut at the Masters he did a Morikawa, rehiring Joseph Mayo with immediate results. Third at the PGA Championships was a triumph for imperfection.
The long shot: Eric Cole
The son of 1966 amateur champion Bobby Cole, who held the 54-hole Open lead at Carnoustie in 1975, Cole has the distinction at 35 of being the second oldest PGA Tour rookie of the year.
The oldest, Todd Hamilton, won the Open here 20 years ago. Hamilton is one of four golfers to win the Honda Classic and the Open at Troon. The others are Tom Weiskopf, Mark Calcavecchia and Justin Leonard. Cole lost in a play-off at the Honda last year.
Close enough? You bet. Each way at least.