As the election results rolled in in the small hours of Friday, there was a steady drumbeat of Tory big beasts being ousted across the country. From Liz Truss to Penny Mordaunt to Jacob Rees-Mogg, name a Tory MP and there is a two in three chance they are out.
The recriminations were quick to begin – on losing his seat, Robert Buckland pointed the finger of blame at Suella Braverman and those colleagues who were most interested in posturing than delivering. Others criticised Rishi Sunak for calling an election when the party was not ready for it.
It means there is – as expected – plenty of Tory misery to go around. “What a complete catastrophe,” says a former minister of the result.
“I woke up and asked if I was leader yet by virtue of being the only MP left,” says one Tory who survived the avalanche of anti-Tory votes.
It’s hard on the surface for anyone in the Tory party to find much reason for positivity when it comes to the result. It is the Tories’ worst defeat in modern history – and worse than Labour’s heavy defeat under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
But despite this, some of the remaining Tory MPs are forcing themselves to find reasons to hope that their time in wilderness could be shorter than many expect.
First, the result is awful – but it is not the worst-case scenario that some pollsters forecast. An MRP poll this week suggested the party could be reduced to around 60 MPs.
At that point the party could have been at risk of losing the status of the official opposition to the Liberal Democrats and being treated like a fringe party by the BBC. So, there is some relief that the party made it to triple figures.
“I thought the exit poll could say 50,” says a Tory campaign aide. Ultimately, there was a genuine concern this election could mark the end of the Tory party – and this result at least keeps the flame alive.
It’s the wider picture though that some Tories are finding rays of light in. The argument goes: yes, Keir Starmer has won a landslide Labour majority, but the party’s vote share wasn’t much higher than that under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. The biggest problem for the Tories was voting switching to Reform or the Lib Dems. “Our vote was lost to Reform, apathy and the Lib Dems,” says a Tory survivor.
This may sound like slim pickings (in part because it is) given the effect was for Labour to win big – but it means the Tories hope Starmer’s large majority is more unstable than it first appears.
As a former of secretary of state puts it: “Keir is going into No 10 with remarkably low popularity, an inexperienced team and few solutions that he has explained to the public. Add in the pressures on his MPs from the independent Gaza and Green votes and he will have a threadbare tightrope to walk.”
Tories licking their wounds are also taking comfort from the SNP’s plight – the party had a devastating night. John Swinney’s party was reduced to nine MPs from a total of 47. There is a hope that some of this is about incumbency rather than a uniquely toxic Tory brand.
Look around the world and most governments who presided over a pandemic and the high inflation that has followed have found themselves facing the anger of the electorate.
In France, Emmanuel Macron is fighting the hard right. In America, Joe Biden could lose to Donald Trump despite an economic recovery. “No one can forget the horror of the past few years,” says a Conservative of the global issues many have faced.
So these MPs see an opportunity. Many said there was no way back for Labour anytime soon after the 2019 election when Boris Johnson won a majority of 80 – Johnson was destined for a second term.
Instead, the Tories missed this opportunity as a result of events outside of their control as well as self-inflicted errors. The Tories hope that a similar situation could befall on them should Starmer run into trouble in the coming years.
“There is no popular mandate for Labour really if we get our act together,” says a former minister.
But that’s the “if” – to have a chance of being able to capitalise on any Labour misfortunes or turmoil, the Tories need to present a united front. Starmer’s biggest achievement was to restore trust in his party and unite it after years of infighting.
Is that really possible given the Conservatives could barely restrain themselves from tearing chunks out of one another during the election campaign? “To survive, we are going to need intelligence and discipline – two qualities we are well known for,” jokes one Tory survivor.
With at least four Reform MPs now in the House of Commons, the Tory party will likely find some of its members tempted to join forces with Nigel Farage’s party to unite the right given how Reform ate into the Tory vote share in many seats. But this will be divisive: there are more Tory MPs opposed to joining forces with Reform than there are those who want to come together.
It means the question is whether the party can find a unity candidate to keep the show on the road. Discussions have begun between candidates about forming a front bench with Tories from different wings of the party in key roles.
“It’s the only way we might hold together through this tricky period,” says a senior Tory. But after the past few years, it’s fair to say the jury is out on whether the party is capable of getting to a point to take advantage of any Labour own goals.
Yes, voters are volatile – look at recent elections. But for the Tories to take advantage of this they need to show that they are not.