Russian attacks around Kharkiv in northern Ukraine mark the start of an anticipated major summer offensive, military experts believe, as President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that two more Ukrainian cities would soon come under fire.
Ukraine announced that it had evacuated more than 7,000 civilians from the Kharkiv area on Tuesday as Russia claimed further gains following a surprise attack that started last Friday with more than 30,000 troops, according to Ukrainian military officials.
Russia’s army said it had captured the town of Buhruvatka on Tuesday after taking several settlements over the weekend in some of its fastest gains since the start of the war, and to have entered the city of Vovchansk.
Drone footage and accounts from Ukrainian soldiers appeared to corroborate Russia’s claims. Open source investigators geolocated clashes between Russian forces and a legion of Russian defectors fighting for Ukraine inside Vovchansk.
The Ukrainian military acknowledged it had left positions around Vovchansk “to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen” but claimed operations were ongoing to secure the city. Ukrainian military bloggers said that Russian advances around the villages of Zelene and Lyptsi were halted.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, General Kyrylo Budanov, warned that northern positions are in danger.
“The situation is on the edge,” he told The New York Times. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
General Budanov said he hoped the front would stabilise in the coming days but predicted another Russian assault targeting the Sumy region to the north-west of Kharkiv, exploiting advantages in manpower and firepower as Ukraine waits for new military aid packages approved by the US Congress last month.
Ukraine’s president also warned of Russian attempts to “expand the war”, in an address on Monday night, highlighting threats to the northern cities of Sumy and Chernihiv.
Mr Zelensky met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Kyiv on Tuesday, and told him that air defences are Ukraine’s most urgent need, particularly in Kharkiv. Mr Blinken said he was confident new US aid packages would “make a real difference”.
Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, said Russian attacks in northern Ukraine marked the start of a major offensive that Kyiv could struggle to contain.
“Russia has now started the early phases of its anticipated summer offensive with renewed attacks on Kharkiv,” he wrote.
“Having stretched the Ukrainians out, the contours of the Russian summer offensive are easy to discern. First, there will be the push against Kharkiv. Ukraine must commit troops to defend its second largest city, and given the size of the Russian group of forces in the area, this will draw in reserves of critical material, from air defences to artillery.
“Second, Russia will apply pressure on the other end of the line, initially threatening to reverse Ukraine’s gains from its 2023 offensive, and secondly putting at risk the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine should be able to blunt this attack, but this will require the commitment of reserve units.
“Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in [eastern Ukraine]… Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance.”
Dr Marina Miron of the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London suggested that Russia’s northern advances marked a “prelude to the offensive” that would draw Ukrainian troops and create weaknesses elsewhere along the front line that could be targeted.
“There are quite few options for where this might go,” she said, suggesting Russia could target the strongholds of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, or Vuhledar to the south.
Dr Miron said that sending reinforcements to Kharkiv would be likely to weaken Ukraine’s defence of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine, a key target for Russia that has come under heavy fire in recent weeks. Ukrainian military sources claim a Russian advance around the city has been largely halted.
Mykola Bielieskov, an adviser to Ukraine’s military leadership at Kyiv think-tank the National Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia appeared to be timing its offensive to exploit a window of relative Ukrainian weakness until further foreign aid arrives.
“What we can say now is that the Biden administration feels the urgency of this moment and soon we will see the third PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) package approved,” he told i.
US aid is expected to include desperately needed air defence equipment, artillery ammunition, long-range missiles, drones, and electronic warfare capabilities, said Mr Bielieskov.
“Russia needs to hurry as their window of opportunity is closing,” he said.