In July, Sir Keir Starmer will walk into Downing Street as the first Labour leader to win a general election since 2005, but the size of his majority is far from certain.
Projections based on Labour’s 20-point poll lead equates to an approximately 300-seat majority with the Conservatives reduced to double figures. But there are reasons to doubt that scenario.
The local elections and contests for Metro mayors did indeed show Labour trouncing the Tories, winning back control of councils in areas that tend to decide general elections: Nuneaton, Milton Keynes, Redditch, Thurrock and even Rushmoor in Hampshire. This indicates that even safe Tory seats that Labour has never held could be in play.
But simultaneously, Labour was also losing seats on its left flank. The growing organisation of the Greens saw them scoop up seats in Bristol, Stroud, Hastings, Norwich and Oxford – and even make small in-roads in the Labour heartlands of Leeds and Newcastle. Previous local elections have seen strong showings by the Greens in Wirral and Lancaster too.
In 2015, the Greens polled their best ever result in a general election. They got 3.8 per cent, buoyed by a lack of enthusiasm for the timid offer of Labour under Ed Miliband. Current polling suggests that the Greens could get double that on 4 July.
The common understanding is that votes for the minor parties are squeezed in a general election, as voters choose between a Labour and Conservative government under our first-past-the-post electoral system.
But there are reasons to believe that may not be the case this year – issues like the war in Gaza and climate change are fundamental for some voters, not something they will weigh in the balance. The dilution of Labour’s £28bn of green investment to a shrivelled husk, and refusal to nationalise the polluting water companies, will help the Greens win and keep environmentally-concerned voters.
Starmer’s reluctance to call for a ceasefire in Gaza (long after Labour’s London mayor and leader in Scotland had done so) and his refusal to call for an arms embargo against Israel has alienated sections of Labour’s base.
And those voters have got organised. In Blackburn, Oldham, Pendle, Bolton, Bradford and elsewhere independent candidates were elected in May’s council elections. High-profile Labour Shadow Cabinet ministers, including Starmer himself, face well-organised independent campaigns in their own constituencies. And of course, Jeremy Corbyn – barred from standing by Starmer’s Labour – may well run in Islington North, the seat he has diligently represented for Labour for more than 40 years.
Labour’s softly, softly approach overall – emphasising economic stability in an economy that leaves people insecure – may fail to inspire in an election campaign. While the Tory vote is clearly staying at home, the Labour vote is far from enthused, and neither is its dwindling activist base (Labour membership is down by 200,000 since Starmer became leader).
It was an uninspiring campaign by both major parties in 2010 that led to what some overly-excited pundits referred to as “Cleggmania” – and the man in question, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, becoming deputy prime minister. If Starmer and Sunak leave a vacuum, other voices will fill it.
Whereas Labour may find it harder than previously to squeeze the votes to its left, the Tories will be welcoming the news that Nigel Farage is not standing for the Reform party. While he is a marmite politician – attracting or repelling support – his presence would have raised the profile of the fringe party. The Tories will spend a lot of resource attempting to flip some Reform voters into their column.
But the biggest problem for Labour will come not in the next six weeks, but on 5 July. Then they will inherit the most adverse set of circumstances of any incoming government since the end of the Second World War.
Earlier this week details of an internal Labour dossier were leaked to the press. The document, drawn up by Starmer’s chief of staff Sue Gray, set out the key major problems that Labour will inherit – it included pressure to increase public sector pay (necessary to fill staff shortages), prison overcrowding, universities going bankrupt, more councils going bankrupt, and NHS funding to solve the longest waiting lists on record.
Labour has, as yet, set out no plan to deal with any of these current problems. All require major public funding to avert – and all indications are that Labour could get elected with no mandate for addressing them. If the polls do narrow, and Labour’s majority is less substantial than polls project, that could make life very difficult.
This is the biggest danger of Labour’s softly-softly approach. It is totally inadequate for the crises Labour will face in office. The next six weeks may see Labour sail serenely to victory, but they face choppy waters when they get there.
Andrew Fisher is a former executive director of policy for the Labour Party