John Swinney has become the frontrunner to be the next SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister after announcing his “unity” campaign to lead the party.
All eyes are now on Kate Forbes, who has yet to reveal whether she will launch a rival leadership bid, after Mr Swinney publicly offered her a senior role in government at his launch event.
Dangling a Cabinet job in front of Ms Forbes, Mr Swinney told reporters he wanted her to join him as a “very senior participant” and “play a significant part” in the Scottish Government.
The 60-year-old veteran is hoping his 34-year rival can still be persuaded not to run. Mr Swinney’s olive branch included lavish praise for Ms Forbes in his campaign launch speech, describing her as an “intelligent, creative, thoughtful person”.
It follows a fall-out last year over Ms Forbes’ comments that she would not have voted to legalise same-sex marriage.
There has been bad blood ever since Mr Swinney questioned whether it was “appropriate” for someone with such socially conservative views to become SNP leader.
Ms Forbes, the ex-Finance Secretary, is set to make a statement on Thursday afternoon about whether she will stand, or let Mr Swinney enjoy a smooth coronation instead.
Pitching himself as the unity candidate, the former Deputy First Minister said he was best placed to “bring the SNP back together again” – admitting that the party was currently “not cohesive” enough to push for Scottish independence.
Mr Swinney also insisted he was “no caretaker” – dismissing speculation that he would act as an interim leader and insisting he wanted to lead the party “beyond” the general election and the 2026 Holyrood ballot.
It emerged that Ms Forbes held “informal” talks with Mr Swinney on Tuesday. But there was no agreement struck then for her to stand aside in return for a Cabinet position, i understands.
Her spokesperson said she was still taking more time to decide.
Ipsos polling has found that SNP voters favour Mr Swinney over Ms Forbes, leading 30 per cent to 21 per cent. However, she is favoured 26 per cent to 20 per cent by the wider public in Scotland.
Supporters of Ms Forbes insist that she can win support from opposition parties on certain issues.
They also insist that the socially conservative figure retains strong support among many SNP members, who would decide on a contest if she does stand.
Ms Forbes may decide she does not have enough support in the Scottish Parliament and would also struggle to unite her party given Mr Swinney’s greater popularity with MSPs.
Still only 34, with a long political career ahead of her, Ms Forbes may also decide that she would not want to lose a leadership contest twice, having narrowly lost to Humza Yousaf last year.
But some of her top backers have been urging her to make it a contest. They have also warned Mr Swinney’s camp not to “weaponise” her faith – claiming his backers have been pointing to her religious views as a problem.
The Highlands MSP, a member of the Free Church of Scotland, ran into trouble last year when she revealed her views on same-sex marriage, which was legalised in Scotland in 2014.
“The attacks, mostly under the cloak of anonymity, the smears and innuendo, are the weaponry of political cowards,” Fergus Ewing, an SNP MSP, previously told i.
Ivan McKee MSP, another leading Forbes ally, dubbed Mr Swinney the “continuity candidate” due to his close links to Nicola Sturgeon and Mr Yousaf, and said his leadership would mean “more of the same”.
Having served as Ms Sturgeon’s deputy for almost nine years, Mr Swinney has been backed by many senior SNP figures as a safe pair of hands to lead the party out of its current turmoil.
His supporters believe he has a much better chance of winning the support of the Scottish Greens to win votes at Holyrood, as the SNP goes it alone in a minority government.
Mr Yousaf announced earlier this week that he was quitting as SNP leader and First Minister after his decision to cut power-sharing deal with the Greens backfired.
Top party figures – including SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, former Commons chief Ian Blackford and Scotland’s Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth – have thrown their weight behind Mr Swinney.
Mr Yousaf called for “unity” within his party on Wednesday, but said he would not be publicly backing anyone who runs. Ms Sturgeon also insisted she was staying out of the contest – saying she was “not going to try to tell other members how to vote”.