John Swinney has been warned that he cannot let Nicola Sturgeon be the “backseat driver” of the SNP government, as he prepares to become Scotland’s new first minister next week.
His coronation as the next SNP leader was sealed when his sole rival for the job, Kate Forbes, announced that she would join the leadership contest.
Mr Swinney promised Ms Forbes a “significant” role in government at his campaign launch, before she announced that she would take up the offer.
The 60-year-old party veteran, a Sturgeon ally who acted as her loyal deputy for nine years, has been urged to hand Ms Forbes a major say in policy so the party can make a clean break from the past.
A SNP source close to Ms Forbes told i: “She must get real influence on decision making. There needs to be real change. We can’t have continuity with the Sturgeon era.”
Chris McEleny, general secretary of Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, called the outcome a “stitch up” by the SNP “old guard” around Ms Sturgeon after Humza Yousaf announced he was stepping down earlier this week.
“Nicola Sturgeon will be the backseat driver of John Swinney’s government,” he told i. “He was the hand of the queen [Ms Sturgeon]. He is still the hand of the queen, and he is going to be carrying out her orders.”
When approached by i, a spokesperson for Mr Swinney declined to comment on Alba’s claim.
Ms Sturgeon insisted this week that she had not been working behind the scenes for Mr Swinney – telling reporters on Wednesday that she was “enjoying not being in the thick of political drama” anymore.
Ms Forbes surprised some of her own supporters by declining to take on Mr Swinney. In a statement, she said she had been reassured that he wanted to change the party after “frank” one-on-one talks on Tuesday.
The 34-year-old socially-conservative Christian, who ran Mr Yousaf close during last year’s contest to succeed Ms Sturgeon, said she recognised “many people might be disappointed”.
But she insisted that Mr Swinney wanted to return to “governing from the mainstream” – a sign that he agreed to move away from the left-wing, Green-led policies that angered many her own supporters.
She said Mr Swinney had committed to economic growth and tackling poverty as priorities, and that the net zero transition must “work with and not against” the oil and gas industry.
One SNP source, a Swinney backer, told i that Ms Forbes had been “wise” to accept a government job and allow a coronation. “John wants to utilise all the talents at his disposal,” they said.
Another source close to Mr Swinney said Ms Forbes had backed down because she realised that she couldn’t win with the SNP membership.
But they tipped her to be given a senior economic role by the next first minister – either as finance secretary or the wellbeing economy, net zero and energy secretary.
Ipsos polling found that SNP voters favour Mr Swinney over Ms Forbes by 30 per cent to 21 per cent. However, she was favoured 26 to 20 by the wider public.
SNP MP Douglas Chapman, a Forbes backer, warned that if Mr Swinney was “serious” about the wider push for Scottish independence, she should get a big say in his government’s agenda.
“Kate has both the capability to serve as a senior minister and can connect with a wide range of the people who still need to be convinced of Scotland’s potential as an independent country,” he told i.
Mr Yousaf announced earlier this week that he was quitting as SNP leader after his decision to tear up power-sharing deal with the Greens without any negotiations backfired.
Mr Swinney’s backers had argued he was more likely than Ms Forbes to win Greens support in running a minority government, given their dislike of her religious views.
She ran into trouble during the 2023 leadership contest after saying she would not have voted to legalise same-sex marriage.
However, Mr Swinney, who was SNP leader in opposition between 2000 and 2004, could still struggle to pass legislation if Ms Forbes successfully pushes the party away from the Greens on transgender issues and climate policy.
Speaking at his launch event in Edinburgh, Mr Swinney said he was best placed to “bring the SNP back together again” – admitting that the party was currently “not cohesive” enough to push for independence.
He also insisted he was “no caretaker”, dismissing speculation that he would act as an interim leader and insisting he wanted to lead the party “beyond” the general election and the 2026 Holyrood vote.
James Mitchell, Edinburgh University’s professor of public policy, said a “stop Forbes” campaign organised by senior party figures this week had worked. “The SNP establishment around Nicola Sturgeon rallied around John Swinney.”
He added: “He has been as close to Sturgeon as anyone, so it will be difficult to distance himself from what has happened in recent years.”
Polling expert Mark Diffley told i that the soon-to-be leader could help ensure regular SNP voters turn out when they go to the polls. “Swinney is entitled to argue that he’s better placed than Forbes to stabilise the core SNP vote ahead of the general election.”
Scottish Labour sources said the turmoil which saw a change of leadership would boost their hopes of winning the most seats in Scotland at the general election.
One described Mr Swinney as “keeping the car in neutral”. Another said a “failed leader from the past” would make Scottish voters desire for change even stronger.
Mr Swinney is set to be sworn in as first minister as a formality next week, with the Greens expected to back him at a vote at Holyrood once Mr Yousaf formally resigns.