A claim that nearly half of private school pupils would leave the sector if a Labour government levied 20 per cent VAT on their fees is “too high” and “not statistically representative”, the consultants behind the study it was based on have said.
Their research was portrayed as “polling” on the front page of a national newspaper in a story last week that also included a response from Education Secretary Gillian Keegan who said it was “proof” that Labour’s tax would “overwhelm our state schools”.
But inquiries by tax lawyer Dan Neidle have revealed that it was based on self-selecting surveys rather than a representative poll.
Baines Cutler, the consultants behind the study, are understood to be concerned about the way their findings were presented as showing that Labour’s tax would “force” out 224,000 private school pupils – representing 42 per cent of the whole sector.
The issue of how many pupils would leave if the tax was levied is a key question for one of Labour’s flagship policies during the run up to the election. If it leads to an exodus of former fee-paying pupils then the cost of educating them in the state sector would eat into the £1.6bn Labour hopes it can raise from the tax.
Last week’s 42 per cent claim was the highest estimate yet. Figures from Baines Cutler are understood to have been passed to the Daily Mail by the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which has been lobbying hard against the tax.
It has now emerged that the findings were not based on a conventional opinion poll but on a series of surveys conducted over the course of two years. Conversations between Mr Neidle, a Labour Party member, and Baines Cutler, have uncovered other shortcomings.
The consultants have said the data are representative of the views of 30,000 parents but admit they are not “statistically representative of the entire sector” and of the parents of more than half a million UK private school pupils.
“It was never designed to be grossed up to the entire population of pupils,” they have told Mr Neidle. “The 224,000 number has never been published anywhere in our reports and is in our eyes too high for many reasons.”
One reason is understood to be the fact that some of the opinions of parents were gathered when the cost of living crisis was more acute and money worries were greater.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has also raised concerns about the suggestion that 42 per cent of pupils would leave private schools because of Labour’s tax, describing it as “incredible”.
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at the respected think tank, who has also looked into the impact of the policy said that the evidence available suggested it would lead to a fall in private school rolls of no more than 7 per cent, or 40,000 pupils.
“I’ve seen lots of reports and evidence and articles over the last year and nothing has led me to demand from my original view that it would likely result in a small reduction in private school attendance, but nothing massive,” Mr Sibieta told i.
However, he added that there is “lots of uncertainty and it would be wise to be cautious and prepare for slightly larger falls”.
Maxwell Marlow, director of research at the right-leaning free market Adam Smith Institute (ASI) also warned that we are “dealing with a lot of unknowns” about the impact of the policy.
But it has produced a report that has suggesting that number of private school pupils leaving under Labour’s policy could be many more than the IFS has estimated.
“The problem is that no one knows what’s going to happen and that’s the big concern for private schools, it’s the concern for local education authorities,” Mr Marlow said.
“If it does happen that 10-15 per cent leave then I’m really worried that there are going to be kids stood outside of school gates with nowhere to go.”
There are also differences of opinion over how much actual fees will rise if Labour taxes them. The Baines Cutler findings assumed a 15 per cent fee rise.
But Mr Sibieta thinks schools are likely to save costs wherever possible to avoid passing as much money as possible onto parents and estimates fees are more likely to rise by 12 or 13 per cent.
“That would probably result in some parents not choosing to send their child to a private school,” he said. “But that’s likely to be at key enrolment points, so reception and age 11.
“It would be unlikely that parents would want to pull their child out of the school, mid-primary school or mid-secondary school, because that has lots of consequences.”
He said that the short-term impact would be “very small” but in the longer term, there might be a “reduction in enrolment” from 3-7 per cent.
Mr Sibieta added that recent data published by the ISC showed there was an average fee increase of 8 per cent this year but pupil numbers had remained stable.
This year, there are 556,551 pupils at 1,411 ISC member schools compared with last year, when there were 554,243 pupils at 1,395 ISC schools.
“Correlation is not causation in these situations,” Mr Sibieta said. “But it doesn’t feel like a sector that expecting a massive drop in attendance.”
An ISC spokesperson said: “There is a real risk that the policy could disrupt education for thousands of children while not raising much, if any, money for state education in the process.
“We are particularly concerned about what the policy could mean for the more than 100,000 children without an education, health and care plan who are receiving SEND support in an independent school, along with the knock-on effect for SEND provision in the state, which is already in crisis.”
A source close to Ms Keegan said she stood by her concerns that Labour’s tax would drive tens of thousands of pupils into the state sector.
A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Labour will invest in delivering a brilliant state education for children in every state school by recruiting over 6,500 new teachers, funded by ending tax breaks for private schools.
“Independent schools have raised fees above inflation for well over a decade and do not have to pass Labour’s proposed change onto parents.”