There’s a meme that’s been doing the rounds online of last week’s G7 summit. The seven leaders stand in together for a photo in Apulia, Italy – but emblazoned over each one is their negative approval ratings.
The Italian host, Giorgia Meloni, is doing the best (-10), France’s Emmanuel Macron is in the middle (-31), while Germany’s Olaf Scholz (-51) is narrowly in front of Rishi Sunak who sits bottom of the class (-54). Barring a political miracle, in two weeks’ time Sunak will duly be turfed out by the electorate and Sir Keir Starmer will be installed in 10 Downing Street.
Expect a great deal of buzz to greet him on the world stage. Even before the election, Conservative ministers were having to get used to entering a room only to find the crowd being drawn to their opposite Labour number. International leaders struggling back at home will no doubt like to attach themselves to a story of success in a bid to suggest that they themselves are part of an upward trend. While Starmer’s approval rating is in the negative, a majority of 150+ would lead most to assume he will be in power for at least a decade.
It means that Starmer ought to have the space to make some big decisions early on. There have been a few hints of what that might entail. Starmer’s chancellor-to-be Rachel Reeves said on Monday that she would seek closer alignment with the EU on areas such as chemical regulations in a bid to boost the economy. Starmer then said when out on the campaign trail that while there would be no re-joining, the Boris Johnson trade deal was “botched” so he would pursue a better deal.
While even the most pro-Remain shadow ministers are on their best behaviour publicly, some privately whisper that rejoining the customs union could be an option later down the line. The single market – which means accepting freedom of movement – is viewed as a non-starter.
But it’s not just alignment that a Labour government would like closer engagement on. It also spreads to security and borders. Starmer has talked before about an EU-wide returns agreement, there is particular hope of improved co-operation with France – with the French government viewed as key to reducing arrivals across the Channel. Allies of the shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, take the view that in a dangerous world facing threats from authoritarian regimes, the UK needs to hug its like-minded allies close – starting with those nearest: Europe.
Ask how a Labour government would achieve all of this and you may be disappointed by the response. Labour don’t want to get too into the weeds – or even the light detail – on how all of this might be achieved. They are operating a safety first campaign, where the less you say the less you can upset or disappoint.
But the general suggestion is that a Labour government would improve relations and the mood – therefore unlocking a host of options. The argument goes that they would be the so-called “grown ups in the room” compared with the dogmatic Tories who came before. As Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar recently put it: “What they’re asking for is to commit to change the relationship, to reset the relationship – and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
Only there’s a glitch or two. First, speak to a Brussels diplomat and they will be quick to tell you that the continent has moved on since the Brexit days. Brexit UK officials no longer meet their EU counterparts on a regular basis – they don’t really know one other. The general sense is they have bigger fish to fry – though could perhaps be tempted to reopen agreements if there are enough concessions on offer.
It means for all of Starmer’s capital if he wins big, he will face a European Union that has changed since the Brexit years and has enough of its own problems to focus on before returning to that era.
As for how today’s Brussels looks, it is a far cry from the Europe that David Cameron negotiated with. As this month’s European Parliament elections showed, Starmer will be an outlier if he triumphs in the UK election next month. The right is on the rise – and the social democrat politicians in power that Labour can find the most in common with could find, like Sunak, that their time is up when national elections come around.
But even now things are changing. In Germany, the far right AfD party is on the rise and in France the threat from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally was enough to spook Macron into calling a snap election. Meloni may be the most powerful politician in Europe these days – yet she is an unashamed fan of Rishi Sunak and has spoken positively about tackling migration with schemes like Rwanda.
In contrast, Macron in France – like Starmer – opposes the scheme. Yet France’s snap election could change the dynamic once again – if the anti-immigration National Rally triumphs and Le Pen’s party is enhanced.
It means the continent many on Starmer’s side first envisaged when coming up with their foreign policy plans is very different from how it looks today. Even if the far right parties which oppose support for Ukraine are kept at bay, there will be a host of challenges from counterparts who cannot be described as like-minded.
The only upside for Starmer is that those on the right are likely to be less obsessed with EU institutions than the mainstream parties. They may be less opposed to the type of flexible arrangements Starmer and his team would like as they try to reshape the Brexit deal. Both the UK and Europe are in a period of change – the prize awaits the leader who is able to bend it to their will.
Just as Starmer and Lammy have had to chart a charm offensive to prepare for a possible Donald Trump comeback – going back on previous comments against the former president – they will need to adjust once again.
Katy Balls is the political editor at The Spectator