Nearly every new car and van sold in the UK will need to be electric within just six years to meet its 2030 net zero target, the Government’s official climate change adviser has said.
Last year, just 16.5 per cent of cars sold in the UK were electric, a slightly lower percentage than in 2022, following three years of steep growth.
This has been blamed, in large part, on the previous government’s decision last year to push back the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles being sold – from 2030 to 2035.
This gave consumers and manufacturers the impression that the then government was not fully committed to electric vehicles (EVs) and put many off buying and making them, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
Now, the Government must reinstate the 2030 ban if the UK is to have a good chance of meeting its legally binding target to cut CO2 emissions by 68 per cent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, according a new progress report by the CCC.
This target needs to be hit to put the country on course to hit its longer term goal of being “net zero” by 2050.
At the same time, the UK must triple the rate at which it installs new charging points, the lack of which is putting people off owning EVs in many parts of the country, the CCC said.
So far, the UK has cut emissions by just over half but only has “credible plans” to achieve a third of the remaining cuts needed to meet the 2030 target.
There are “some risks” attached to plans to eliminate another 26 per cent of the gap, while the rest of the plans either carry “significant risks” or are “insufficient”, the CCC found.
“The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new Government has an opportunity to correct its course, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars,” said Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the Climate Change Committee.
“The Government needs to reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales,” he said.
The report points out that electric car sales are “beginning to have a measurable impact on emissions, with one million now on the road, meaning that 2.8 per cent of the overall car fleet are now driving without producing direct emissions.”
But it points out there is a long way to go – especially given that EVs are still considerably more expensive than fossil fuel cars to buy, even if they are cheaper to run and maintain.
In the first three months of this year, the average price of a new EV in the UK was £59,216, while that of a petrol car was £46,991, according to Jato Dynamics, a data provider.
However, the CCC says it is confident that most new vehicles on the road will be electric by 2030.
The group says that while EVs still cost more, their price has come down a long way and will be lower than petrol and diesel cars by the end of the decade.
“Postponing the phase out date sent a signal to automakers and consumers about the direction of travel. The uncertainty has proved disconcerting. But for consumers, the real gear change will be when the sticker price of EVs is lower than petrol and diesel – which we expect to happen this decade,” Dr Eoin Devane, who leads the CCC team analysing the Government’s progress on meeting emissions targets, told i.
He said it was hard to tell the precise impact of Britons switching to new EVs as it depends how many people and businesses are buying new cars at any one moment.
But he points out that road and rail transport is the biggest sector of emissions in the UK – “so it would be very hard for us to hit out targets without this transition to EVs”.
The CCC also wants to see planning barriers for EV chargers removed to make it easier to install electric vehicle charge point and to see tree planting rates more than double..
The number of homes heated by a wind pump should rise ten fold from 1 per cent now to 10 per cent in 2030.
Meanwhile, offshore wind capacity will need to at least triple by 2030 – while solar farm installation rates will need to increase five fold over the next six years, compared to the average rate seen since 2020, the report recommends.
Paul Morozzo, transport campaigner at Greenpeace UK, told i: “Transport is the most polluting sector in the UK, and cars and vans account for the bulk of that. A transition to electric vehicles is essential and will help slash emissions on a national scale as well as tackling air pollution.”
“The last government’s flip-flopping on petrol and diesel vehicle phase out sent mixed messages to the car industry and investors, and dented consumer confidence.”
“With the cost of second-hand EVs now similar to their petrol or diesel equivalents, that market is growing fast and it’s more important than ever for the government to send a clear message that this transition will be supported through world-beating charging infrastructure and lower energy prices,” he said.
Danny Gross, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: “This report is a damning indictment of the climate policies the new Labour administration has inherited from the previous government.
“While the new government has made a positive start on climate action by setting out plans for decarbonising electricity, including lifting the ban on onshore wind, and withdrawing its legal defence of plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria, it urgently needs to ramp up ambition on cutting emissions from homes and buildings, transport and agriculture.”
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: “This report lays bare the failures of the previous government. On a vast range of policy areas, it says we are off track to meet our targets – and our country is paying the price with higher bills and energy insecurity.
“The good news is that this report confirms that a clean energy future is the best way to make Britain energy independent, cut bills, create good jobs, and tackle the climate crisis.
“That is why the Government is wasting no time in delivering our mission. In just one week we have scrapped the 9-year onshore wind ban, established a National Wealth Fund, and consented more solar power than has been installed over the past year”.